Introduction
The world has experienced many wars and conflicts. Yet, a question remains: is a new global conflict imminent? Geopolitical tensions are rising. Climate challenges continue to mount. Rapid technological advancements are happening. Many are questioning whether we are heading toward a tipping point.
Geopolitical Tensions: A New Axis of Power?
Recent developments have drawn attention to alliances among nations like Russia, China, and Iran. Some experts refer to them as the “new Axis powers.” Their growing cooperation raises concerns about a realignment of global power structures. General Sir Patrick Sanders served as the Chief of the General Staff in the UK. In 2024, he warned that these nations’ interdependence could significantly alter global security dynamics. The impact might be felt within the next decade.¹
A report in The Atlantic highlighted striking similarities in the geopolitical atmosphere today and the prelude to World War II. Rivalries between major powers are intensifying against a backdrop of economic and ideological divides.² Such parallels underscore the urgency of reassessing international frameworks for diplomacy and conflict prevention.
Some scholars argue that direct large-scale war is less likely due to economic interdependence. The high costs associated with modern warfare further mitigate these risks.³ While the fear of conflict persists, the realities of a globalized economy may offer some protection. However, this protection is not impenetrable.
¹ General Patrick Sanders’ comments as cited in The Times: “Rearm now or face threat of global conflict,” September 2024. Access here.
² The Atlantic, “War Is Coming. Will Our Next President Be Ready?” October 2024. Read here.
³ Fearon, J.D. (1995). “Rationalist Explanations for War.” International Organization.
The Role of Climate Change in Conflict
Climate change isn’t just about melting ice caps or rising sea levels; it’s a potential catalyst for unrest. Research has shown that resource scarcity, exacerbated by climate change, is increasingly linked to conflicts in vulnerable regions. Tobias Ide’s studies provide evidence for this. They indicate that when environmental stress is combined with weak governance, the likelihood of protests and armed conflicts increases.⁴
Despite this, the intersection of climate adaptation and peace-building remains under-explored. Scholars have highlighted that climate strategies often overlook conflict-affected regions, where the need for sustainable solutions is most urgent.⁵ Addressing this gap requires a deeper focus on integrating climate resilience into global conflict prevention frameworks.
⁴ Ide, T. (2020). “Climate change and armed conflict: Four insights and paths for future research.” Current Climate Change Reports. Access here.
⁵ Carius, A. (2021). “Climate change and peacebuilding: Opportunities for synergy.” Adelphi Research Report. Readhere.
Technological Warfare: A Silent Threat
The digital age has introduced cyber warfare and artificial intelligence as new battlegrounds. Disinformation campaigns, hacking critical infrastructure, and advanced autonomous weapons present unprecedented risks. According to a report by the World Economic Forum, state actors are growing their capabilities in cyber warfare. Non-state actors are also enhancing their capabilities. These advancements could destabilize global security.⁶
While these technologies revolutionize defense, they also pose significant ethical and practical challenges. Academic studies argue that international regulations lag behind these advancements, creating vulnerabilities that could escalate into larger conflicts.⁷
⁶ World Economic Forum (2024). “The Global Risks Report.” Access here.
⁷ Singer, P.W. (2009). Wired for War: The Robotics Revolution and Conflict in the 21st Century. Penguin Press.
A Call for Research and Dialogue
While experts debate the likelihood of a global conflict, what’s clear is the need for proactive measures. Policymakers, academics, and citizens must work together to address the root causes of instability, from inequality to environmental degradation. Despite progress, gaps remain in understanding the dynamics of peacebuilding in conflict-affected areas. Additionally, the role of technology in international relations needs further exploration.⁸
By bridging these gaps, we can better navigate the uncertainties of our time and mitigate the risks of large-scale conflicts. Research and dialogue will remain central to creating a resilient global framework for peace.
⁸ Gleditsch, N.P., & Nordås, R. (2021). “Conflicts and Climate Change: Challenges for Peace Research.” International Peace Research Institute. Access here.
Author: Fathi M. Osman